After a summer of historic tumult, the path to the presidency for both and this fall is becoming much clearer.

The Democratic vice president and the Republican former president will devote almost all of their remaining time and resources to just seven states. They will spend hundreds of millions of dollars targeting voters who, in many cases, have just begun to pay attention to the election. And their campaigns will try to focus their messages on three familiar issues sa国际传媒� the economy, immigration and abortion sa国际传媒� even in the midst of heated debates over character, culture and democracy.

The candidates in what will be their first meeting ever. The nationsa国际传媒檚 premier swing state, Pennsylvania, begins in-person absentee voting the week after. By the end of the month, early voting will be underway in at least four states with a dozen more to follow by mid-October.

In just 63 days, the final votes will be cast to decide which one of them will lead the worldsa国际传媒檚 most powerful nation.

Privately, at least, both camps acknowledge that victory is no sure thing as they begin the eight-week sprint to Election Day. Harris and Trump are neck-and-neck in most national polls conducted since .

The Harris campaign still put out a memo over the weekend casting itself as sa国际传媒渢he clear underdogssa国际传媒� in the contest.

sa国际传媒淭heresa国际传媒檚 not a scenario here thatsa国际传媒檚 easy,sa国际传媒� Harris senior adviser David Plouffe said in an interview. sa国际传媒淭he pathway to beating Donald Trump, the pathway to 270 electoral votes for Kamala Harris, is exceedingly hard, but doable. And thatsa国际传媒檚 just a reality.sa国际传媒�

Trump, meanwhile, rejects any indicators that suggest Harris is ahead even as he lashes out at her in deeply personal and sometimes apocalyptic terms, declaring that sa国际传媒渙ur country is finishedsa国际传媒� if she wins.

sa国际传媒淎s we move past Labor Day, we will really get into the time where voters start to harden their opinions,sa国际传媒� said James Blair, the Trump campaignsa国际传媒檚 political director. sa国际传媒淲e feel pretty good about things. We feel energized. Our people are energized. But theresa国际传媒檚 certainly plenty of work to be done.sa国际传媒�

The electoral map settles on seven states

Just over a month ago, Trump allies suggested Democratic-leaning states like Minnesota, Virginia or even New Jersey might be in play. Neither side believes that is still the case on Labor Day weekend.

In replacing Biden as the partysa国际传媒檚 nominee, Harris breathed new life into the Democratssa国际传媒� political prospects, especially across the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. All four states have significant numbers of African Americans and Latinos, traditionally Democratic constituencies who were down nationally on Biden but appear to have come home to rally behind Harris.

South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham was among the senior GOP officials who between Trump and Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, whose feud threatened to undermine the Republican effort in the state. Graham told The Associated Press he was worried about Georgiasa国际传媒檚 shift leftward.

sa国际传媒淭rump was up 5 or 6 points, and all over the course of a month itsa国际传媒檚 become much more competitive,sa国际传媒� he said.

Republican pollster Paul Shumaker, an adviser to North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis, said even a slight uptick in the Black vote has the potential to give Harris the edge in North Carolina, pointing to Mecklenburg County, the home of the Charlotte metro area, but also fast-growing counties such as Durham and Wake.

sa国际传媒淚f Kamala Harris could get them to turn out at the rate of Republicans in rural North Carolina, game over for Republicans,sa国际传媒� Shumaker said of Black voters.

At the same time, Trump remains decidedly on offense in the Midwestern battlegrounds of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which form the so-called Democratic sa国际传媒渂lue wallsa国际传媒� that he narrowly carried in 2016 and barely lost in 2020.

Those seven states sa国际传媒� in addition to swing districts in Nebraska and Maine that each award single Electoral College votes sa国际传媒� will draw virtually all of the candidatessa国际传媒� attention and resources over the next eight weeks.

Trump is investing more advertising dollars in Pennsylvania than any other state through Election Day.

A Trump victory in Pennsylvania alone would make it much more difficult for Harris to earn the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. Harrissa国际传媒� team insists she has multiple pathways to victory.

The Democratssa国际传媒� organizing advantage

In the fight to frame the election on the air and reach voters in person, Democrats currently have a decided advantage.

Harrissa国际传媒� team is on pace to outspend Trumpsa国际传媒檚 camp 2-to-1 in television advertising over the next two months. And even before Biden made way for Harris, the Democrats wielded superior campaign infrastructure in the states that matter most.

Harrissa国际传媒� team, which includes her campaign and an allied super PAC, have more than $280 million in television and radio reservations for the period between Tuesday and Election Day, according to the media tracking firm AdImpact. Trumpsa国际传媒檚 team, by contrast, has $133 million reserved for the final stretch, although that number is expected to grow.

Trumpsa国际传媒檚 side is actually narrowly outspending Harrissa国际传媒� on the airwaves in Pennsylvania, where both sides will spend more than $146 million between Tuesday and Election Day, according to AdImpact, a figure that dwarfs that of any other state. Georgia is drawing nearly $80 million in ad spending over the campaignsa国际传媒檚 final eight weeks.

But in the other five battleground states, Harris largely has the airwaves largely to herself sa国际传媒� at least for now.

Trump and his allied super PACs have made only marginal ad reservations in Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Nevada to date. Harrissa国际传媒� team, by comparison, is investing no less than $21 million in each of the five states, according to an AdImpact analysis.

Harrissa国际传媒� team also boasts more than 300 coordinated offices and 2,000 staff on the ground in swing states, according to her campaignsa国际传媒檚 weekend memo.

Blair, the Trump campaignsa国际传媒檚 political director, disputes that Democrats have as big an organizing advantage as those numbers make it seem. He pointed to outside allies that will organize for Trump are well-funded, including a new effort backed by billionaire Elon Musk.

Trumpsa国际传媒檚 campaign on Tuesday said it also has more than 100 dedicated campaign offices in key states, which are backed by another 200 existing GOP offices dedicated to Republican victories this fall.

Heresa国际传媒檚 what the polls say

Both candidates are locked in close races across the seven top swing states. Democratic pollster John Anzalone said Harris sa国际传媒減ut the Democrats back in the game to where itsa国际传媒檚 kind of a toss-up.sa国际传媒�

But now comes the hard part, Anzalone said.

sa国际传媒淧ost Labor Day, when the bell rings, there is a battle for a slim universe of sa国际传媒� you can call them anything you want: persuasion voters, swing voters, independent voters sa国际传媒� and itsa国际传媒檚 pretty small, and thatsa国际传媒檚 where each side gets a billion dollars,sa国际传媒� Anzalone said.

Many independents appear to find both candidates unsatisfying, according to in August.

For now, Harris also has a slight advantage on some key traits among independents, while she and Trump are about even on others.

For example, about 3 in 10 independents say that sa国际传媒渉onestsa国际传媒� describes Harris better, while about 2 in 10 say it describes Trump better. About 3 in 10 also say that sa国际传媒渃ommitted to democracysa国际传媒� describes Harris better, while less than 2 in 10 say it describes Trump better.

The candidates were about equally likely to be perceived by independents as capable of winning the election, capable of handling a crisis, and sa国际传媒渃aring about people like you.sa国际传媒�

Who is the sa国际传媒榗hange candidatesa国际传媒�?

The race may ultimately be decided by whichever candidate can most successfully be cast as the sa国际传媒渃hange candidatesa国际传媒� given that about 7 in 10 voters say the country is heading in the wrong direction, based on conducted in late July after Biden withdrew from the race.

Trump was the face of change when he won the 2016 election. And even after serving in the White House for four years, he continues to energize millions of frustrated voters who embrace his brash leadership style and unwillingness to follow the traditional rules of politics.

Harris has been Bidensa国际传媒檚 vice president for nearly four years, yet the historic nature of her candidacy sa国际传媒� she would be the first woman president sa国际传媒� allows her to make a convincing case that she represents a new direction for the country, said veteran Democratic strategist James Carville.

Still, hesa国际传媒檚 worried about his partysa国际传媒檚 sa国际传媒渟evere underperformancesa国际传媒� in the so-called sa国际传媒渂lue wallsa国际传媒� states in recent elections.

sa国际传媒淚sa国际传媒檒l feel good after the election,sa国际传媒� Carville said. sa国际传媒淟etsa国际传媒檚 get the hay in the barn. Theresa国际传媒檚 still a lot of hay out there in the field.sa国际传媒�